During 21 months of the reign of Donald trump in 2 thousand 622 districts where he won, mostly located in the province or not and includes large cities, the number of jobs grew somewhat faster than in 490, located primarily on the coasts, where he supported Hillary Clinton. The rate of development of the labour market in prorepublican regions was twice faster than in the last 2 years of his presidency of Barack Obama.
Analysis of data by Bloomberg News, conducted by experts from the Brookings Institution, showed that this trend was observed for 12 months and was recorded for the first time in 7 years. However, the regions where popular Democrats continue to lead in terms of wages and contribution to the economy, but the development of those where in 2016 prevailed the President is critical to his victory in 2020. in addition, as the White house and many lawmakers-Republicans hope that economic success will make voters forget about the scandals associated with the actions of the administration. And the low rating of the trump in this case is not an obstacle.
Being 3 years ago as a candidate he promised not only to restore the greatness of America, but also to take care of “the forgotten people” living in the regions in which the recession at the time, was hit with particular force. The economic achievements that have led, in particular, to the fact that the unemployment rate fell to the lowest in half a century of 3.6%, allowed him to rally his supporters, and, as shown by a survey conducted in early may by Gallup, among voters-Republican activities trump endorses 91%, and his overall rating for the time elapsed after the publication of the results of the investigation Robert Mueller has increased from 39% to 46%.
The President’s re-election largely depends on whether to continue economic development. Such guarantees cannot be given, including by reason of trade conflicts, which could negatively impact on agriculture and industry, export-oriented, that is, industries in which “spetsializiruyutsya” regions, where support trump. In addition, they continue to lag behind the United States, where popular Democrats. Those in the lead at the expense of such areas as financial services, information and computer technology.
As noted by a senior analyst Brookings”s Metropolitan Policy Program mark Muro, in districts where in 2016, won the trump, is home to 45% of the population, but the volume produced there in the gross domestic product is only one-third of the total, and the salary is equal, as of September 2018, only 72 cents for every dollar paid in Pro-democratic States. And a lot depends on whether they will be able to bridge this gap. In fact, as recently did not hesitate to remind Senator Bernie Sanders, half
Americans, despite the prosperous state of the economy, are living “from pay to pay”.
Press Secretary of the White house Judd Deere said for its part that the main merit of the President is to accelerate the growth in the number of jobs and overall development of the economy, aided by lower tax rates, deregulation and the creation of more equitable conditions in international trade.
In particular, in districts where supported trump, the number of new vacancies have now increased by 2.6% per year, whereas in the last 2 years of Obama’s presidency, the rate was 1.3 percent. There, where he beat Clinton, this trend is also noticeable, however, is not so pronounced — there was a growth from 1.9% to 2.2%. His role was played by the recovery in the energy sector, caused primarily by rising prices of oil. And General economic growth in the districts which voted in favor of trump, has accelerated from 1.6% to 1.9%, while a decrease from 2.5% to 2%, where Clinton won.
As a whole, reduced the unemployment rate among whites without a College education, most of whom supported trump, and all races, alumni, mostly sympathetic to his opponent. In the first category, the share of the unemployed who remained in the Obama unchanged, reduced from 5, 3% to 3% in April of this year, the second — from 2.7% to 2.3%.
However, compared to the last 2 years of Obama’s presidency, the growth of average weekly wages in “districts trump” dropped, adjusted for inflation, from 0.6% to 0.3% per year and
Of 0.9% to 0.1% — where Clinton won. The problem is that in prorepublican districts a large part of jobs created may be reduced, because of physical or unskilled labor, the demand for which is becoming smaller due to automation and the transfer of production bases abroad. Jobs in the energy sector generally become the first victim of the recession, to eliminate the occurrence of which is not necessary. And agriculture for the past 5 years experiencing a decline in profits, which only accelerated after the beginning of the trump trade wars.