Whether justified confidence?

There is no shortage of forecasts that the election campaign 2020 will be President Donald trump is more difficult than in 2016.

The main problem is he — rather, his approach to the opposition of all who disagree with him, which leads to an increase in the number of opponents, but not supporters.

In the course of the month 4 surveys over 50% of respondents claimed every time that I will never vote for trump. According to Fox News, their share was 54%, and sociologists from Winnipegthe University found that those 52%, whereas only 33% definitely intend to support the President, and only 13% do not rule out that they will take the same decision. So we can assume that many of those who voted for him, disappointed in him as a wrestler and establishment. And, in addition, the actions of trump, as reported by the website RealClearPolitics, now approve 43%, despite the fact that 53.6 per cent called themselves his opponents.

Of course, in favor of the President can re-play features of the electoral system in the United States, because in 2016, he on the results of direct expression of citizens gained 2.1 percentage points less than Hillary Clinton, but, nevertheless, received the necessary 306 votes of the members of the electoral College. And, according to the Manager of his election headquarters brad Parscale, there is reason to believe that in 2020, the trump will not only perform better, but to win in Colorado, Minnesota, new Hampshire, new Mexico and Nevada, where in 2016 and endorsed Clinton.

Then pretty much all decided in Florida, the largest of the traditionally “swing” States, and in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where since the 1980s years sympathy was given to Democrats. Now, according to Terry Madonna, a political scientist from the University of Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall College, it is possible that events will develop in a similar scenario.

If the election took place at the present time, according to Winnipegthe University of Pennsylvania Joseph Biden would have gained 11 percentage points more than the trump. Bernie Sanders would be ahead of him by 7 points, Elizabeth Warren — 3, and Kamala Harris have scored the same. The advantage would be Pete Batterija, although only by 1 point, which coincides with the statistical error of the survey.

It is unclear, and how it changed the mood in Florida. According to political consultant Steve Sheila, who in 2008 was the Director of the local headquarters of Barack Obama, and now Biden supports the opinion of local voters largely the same as that fixed in the Northern part of the Midwest and Pennsylvania. And accordingly, in all of these regions are award candidates, representing one and the same, that is to say, a “political type”.

The trump, it seems, regards as the greatest threat to Biden, who recently launched a new attack on Twitter. It is three times in a single record called the leader among the candidates of the Democratic party “Sleepy Joe”. But really “Wake up” need is the President to be fully aware of the difficulties he might face in the course of the campaign.

Of The Northern STANAG,

The Hill

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