What goes around comes around two disasters, the Boeing 737 Max as compromised American company and what are the implications of a situation Russia should do, “Газете.Ru” said Alexander Yavkin, former chief designer of the aircraft be-200, the General Director of consulting company “RIVERS aerospace”.
— Can you tell that what is happening now in the world after two accidents on the Boeing 737 Max 8 is a sort of indicator of the crisis in the aviation industry?
— No doubt. The events that followed the disaster in Ethiopia, in my opinion, have no precedent. President Donald trump himself was forced to intervene in the fast-paced decision-making process of the aviation authorities and airlines of different countries, to announce that the US suspend all flights of Boeing 737 Max 8 and Max 9. His decision was reinforced the FAA ban on flights over the United States and confirmed by finally, the recommendations of the Boeing company to suspend flights of planes of this type.
Boeing stated that it is recommended to stop the operation of the 371 aircraft of this type around the world for an indefinite period.
In two days more than 30 airlines refused to use these ships and more than 40 countries closed the airspace.
Given the importance of the Boeing company for the United States, of course, for trump and leadership Boeing is forcing the decision under pressure from the international community. In the FAA report “the Economic impact of civil aviation on the U.S. economy” released in November 2016, said:
“The civil aircraft production continues to fuel the US economy, as the largest net export of the United States. According to the Bureau of economic analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of the census, U.S. production of civil aircraft has made 59.9 billion US dollars in the US trade balance (exports less imports) in 2014, averaging 5.1 percent per year from 2012.”
After the Declaration of the trump shares of the company immediately fell more than 3%. Of course, a disaster is always a loss of life tragedy. But such a reaction in the world, in the absence of tension in the world, what is now, probably would not exist. Unfortunately, disasters do happen, and for different reasons. But the current situation, I think, provoked the behavior of the FAA with Boeing after the disaster in Indonesia, and General tensions between States. Played a major role in China, which has a large fleet of these aircraft, and European countries, despite the fact that in the US the FAA is firmly of the view that the reason for landing there, and the head of Boeing assured trump that there are no reasons for concern.
According to the documents of ICAO, Airbus and Boeing has proclaimed that the security of the subject of the competition is not. And if Europe, China, and other companies have suspended flights, thinking that they are not safe, then the opposite statement from the US talking about an abnormal situation.
This is a crisis, the schism, as in recent years, countries have made large efforts to unify approaches to security issues.
— Is it reasonable to consider these two disasters together?
— Analogy between these accidents are, but a priori to treat them as happened for one reason is wrong, as the crash should be considered without regard to the policy issues of guilt and other things.
The most important thing — not to punish someone. Need to find and eliminate the causes.
— You followed the first parts of the disaster in Indonesia that in the story seem strange to you?
Today the aircraft with direct control, which do not use electronic control, logic, and supporting systems, is not produced. And the pilots of modern Airliners are so used to automatically trust these electronic systems, which are already not thinking in situations of failures.
Suspicion fell on a system MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System). In the system MCAS is evident that it, as written,
not disabled simple and natural for the pilot actions running slowly and without notice.
As a result, the pilot sees that the machine performs is something wrong, and maybe not notice it. It can start to counteract this system, not knowing what was happening. And it turned out that only some airlines before the disaster demanded training to work with this system. But Boeing assures that the system is reliable, the pilot feels nothing for him on this system do not need to know, and because the crews don’t need to retrain anything.
Because we can see what aircraft these types of not one, not two, and they are not raining from the sky, probably mostly the system works fine. A PE happens when something happens with sensors of angle of attack or other sensors, data from which it enjoys. In this case, MCAS can assume that the plane flies almost the nose up sharply and tries to save by lowering the nose.
And system, designed to save, ruining the plane.
Boeing said that after the disaster in Indonesia, he banned the system of MCAS to work with illogical readings of the sensor, and now launched the process of finalising all 737 MAX. Of course, Boeing people are not crazy and do not want to look.
But this system, too, not just took, she had to put up because of the new engine on this aircraft is more economical, powerful and wide and create more high Cabriole moment…
— What a miscalculation Boeing? That, putting this system, and assuming that the pilots did not notice her, they became her focus, would otherwise have to retrain pilots with older versions of the 737’s, and it would require large expenditures.
Things in aviation happen very often.
— There comes to memory an analogy with the Tu-104, which at the dawn of his operation inexplicably fell from the train, and the only pilot Harold Kuznetsov with his life helped me to understand what is birth trauma of the plane…
— No need to go far for examples. Due to the failure of the Pitot were two disasters An-148… the A320 was the first aircraft with a digital control system, their pilots convinced of the safety of these systems, with the aircraft at frequent intervals have been four disasters in a row. Then a great noise arose that automation is not needed, are dangerous, the pilots don’t feel anything and so on…
And our famous Tu-154 design flaw — it is not dumped properly, as required by airworthiness regulations, he falls into a flat spin and falling like a leaf. So the crash occurred in Irkutsk, Donetsk, in Central Asia.
Boeing is now faced with the fact that due to saving the cost of retraining, and improvement of people died.
— Previously, trump said the thing which expressed a fairly widespread, not only among experts, opinion: modern aircraft are so complicated and stuffed with electronics that are dangerous. Is this not a deadlock?
— Indeed, if you were previously a highly skilled pilots and testers, today planes are run by “operators” that are doing it well, so far so good.
When people can’t figure out what he wants the plane and how it is controlled.
So fell the French A330 over the Atlantic when the cabin no one could figure out what he wants. And the problem was all in the same tube LDPE. The pilots control the aircraft in case of failure of the avionics have almost no practice, no skill, they are lost. And when talking about modern pilot say that he had 10 thousand flight hours, it often means little.
— The refusal of so many countries from Boeing 737 Max 8 and the recognition of their initially safe in Canada and the United States — you see this as more politics or rational?
— More policy. Because the first thing in such a situation, it would be necessary to meet the aviation authorities of Europe, USA, other, for example under the auspices of the ICAO, where it would be made a General decision on this issue. And the first decision taken by individual companies, politicians, European Parliament…
And only on 12 March at 22-00 Moscow time, after a half-dozen other countries have grounded their Boeing 737 Max 8, EASA has grounded all Boeing 737 Max in its area of jurisdiction. However, the acting FAA administrator Daniel K. Elwell virtually ignored the decision of the European colleagues, making a statement late Tuesday that based on all available data, “no reason” for landing.
“Other civil aviation authorities also did not provide us with data that would require action,” he said. But concern was growing in the world, and in the process was forced to intervene, President trump.
This is a crisis approach to security in the world.
Boeing and FAA have acted in accordance with their proclaimed principles, which recalled after the statement of trump: “Security remains the main value for Boeing since then, as we started to build airplanes, and it will remain forever. Greater priority for our company and our industry does not exist,” said company President Dennis Muilenburg. I think that this is very bad.
— How now can the fate of the Boeing 737 Max?
— A similar situation recently was with the Boeing 787.
— Who have lit up the batteries?
Yes. And then the FAA grounded those planes. However, Boeing fixed it, dusted himself off and went on. Now I also think that sooner or later, this technical issue will be resolved. But the attitude that was shown, no one will forget. And if, God forbid, something happens with the Airbus, they will be able to ban flights of the Americans.
And if there’s another similar disaster, it will be the end of all, and perhaps, for Boeing.
Remember, there was a company McDonnell Douglas?
— Yes, and its first wide-body DC-10.
The crash of this plane near Paris – the first crash of a widebody aircraft, three hundred dead. Somehow wriggled out of the situation, the second disaster in Chicago – and all DC-10 is no longer sold in passenger version. And McDonnell Douglas was bought by Boeing, and as a civil company, it has disappeared, but it was bigger than him.
It might end very bad for Boeing, but I don’t think that there are such adventurers. By the way, the latest catastrophe occurred in Africa, and Russia’s aviation safety level corresponds to Africa – if the world 500 thousand flights one death, then we have a — 1 275 thousand and the fact that the disaster occurred in Africa and Indonesia, not in USA or Europe, is also a kind of indicator.
— The current situation — not a cause of changes in the Russian rules of certification of foreign courts?
— We understand that today in Russia, not even to the end of the approved rules certification — we are on foreign aircraft almost do not watch. Our be-200 received our certificate in 2001, and in 2005 we submitted an application to EASA. And only in 2010 year we received the European certificate, and then only with restrictions. All this time we have something to prove, felt finish.
About the same was “Superjet”, and all Western aircraft almost immediately receive our certificates.
Recently done much to improve Affairs in the Russian certification system. This issue was given special attention at the meeting of the Aviation Board, held on December 12 last year under the leadership of Deputy Chairman of the government of the Russian Federation Yuri Borisov.
But the incident two disasters with the latest ships, made in the USA, shows that we cannot rest on our laurels. The efforts of the Federal air transport Agency needs to be supported by the Government of the Russian Federation financial and human resources in order to strengthen control, including at certification of foreign aircraft, no matter how renowned companies they were made. Strengthening the certification requirements will serve to increase the level of safety around the world.