The results of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine allow “the Servant of the people” to form a single-party majority in Parliament, and Vladimir Zelensky — to determine both internal and foreign policy. This is the last stage of the regime change in Kiev — expected external political players who, one way or another, watching the military conflict in the Donbass. What to expect in Russia, Europe, the US and the Ukrainians themselves — in the material “Газеты.Ru”.
Ukraine’s Central election Commission has processed 100% of electronic protocols of voting at parliamentary elections. In the Verkhovna Rada are five political parties is the “servant of the people” (of 43.16%), “Opposition platform For life” (of 13.05%), “Batkivshchyna” (8 and 18%) “European solidarity” (8,10%) and “the Voice” (5,82%).
The results of the elections only cemented the trend on a complete change of power in the country. For the first time in the history of Ukraine in the Parliament will be formed a single — party majority, “a servant of the people” will lead to the Parliament 254 MP. A similar result has surpassed all expectations.
Due to the fact that the Ukrainian Parliament had hitherto been under the control of the former leader of the country Petro Poroshenko first months of his presidency Zelensky were not significant. The head of state all this time has given inconsistent statements regarding the Minsk agreements, the readiness to negotiate with Moscow and the war in the Donbass. The lack of political experience also does not make clear Zelensky figure, neither for Russia, nor for the West.
After the inauguration of President Zelensky had to direct all its efforts on confrontation with the Parliament, which does not support any one bill. Russia, Europe and the US did not jump to conclusions about the new Ukrainian head and how to change the foreign policy of Ukraine. Therefore, for the parliamentary elections was of great interest of all the key players on the world stage. Now the strategy Zelensky, who was able to take all power into their own hands, may become clearer.
What does Russia
Expectations of the Russian side Ukraine is clear: the first person about their position and say quite clearly and openly.
In their statements regarding the possibility of talks with Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in the first place, its willingness. However, he also indicates a number of conditions that Ukraine must fulfill. First and foremost, Moscow is waiting for the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
The Russian leader said that pragmatic cooperation between Moscow and Kiev, the foundations of which are trust and mutual understanding in the interest of both Nations. However, no one shot Zelensky in Russia, the Kremlin does not miss.
Contradictory statements from the Ukrainian leader really did. During the presidential race, for example, he expressed a willingness to negotiate, but after the inauguration already ruled out such a possibility.
The ambiguity of the position of the Ukrainian President pointed to Putin himself. In particular, he noted that Zelensky has expressed a willingness to resolve the conflict in the Donbass, however, later stated that he did not intend to engage in a dialogue with the “separatists”.
“Probably, it somehow does not fit with what was said during the election campaign. Wait for the end of the election campaign in Ukraine’s Parliament — let’s see what will happen in real life,” the Russian leader said July 4 during a press conference after a meeting with Prime Minister of Italy, Giuseppe Conte.
This is the Minsk agreement became the cornerstone in relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West. Moscow and Kiev have been accusing each other of violating the agreement. In addition, the Kremlin was also forced to repel the attacks of the West on the same occasion.
The violation of Minsk agreements by Ukraine Putin points every time when it comes to the possibility of negotiations with Zelensky.
“Yeah, maybe if Zelensky will begin to fulfill their campaign promises, including come into direct contact with their fellow citizens in the Donbass and to stop calling them separatists. If the Ukrainian authorities will fulfill the Minsk agreement, and not to ignore them”, — said Putin.
Himself Zelensky has stated that he opposes the law on the special status of Donbass and Amnesty law for the civil and military officials of the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk national republics.
“Zelensky is not ready to recognize the special status of Donbass, is not going to sign the Amnesty does not intend to hold direct talks with Russia. Therefore, I do not find any argument which would testify that he and his team really wants the world,” tweeted the head of political Council of party “Oppositional platform For life” Viktor Medvedchuk.
It is hope that the results of the parliamentary elections will lead to the Parliament 43 deputies, is now the primary conduit between Kiev and Moscow. Russia openly supports “the Opposition platform”. The leader of the party Yuriy Boyko and Medvedchuk have not visited Moscow, where he met with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
The presence of “the Opposition platform For life” in Parliament can serve for Zelensky shield from the attacks of nationalist-minded part of society, if he will take steps in the direction of the negotiations with Moscow or enforcement of the provisions of the Minsk agreements.
By the way, Zelensky himself at the beginning of July has declared its readiness to comply with the agreement.
“Neither my team nor I signed this “Minsk”, but we are ready to go on all points of the Minsk agreements in order to finally we had peace,” said the President of Ukraine in his interview to Deutche Welle.
This willingness Europe, apparently, should meet with relief. 11 July, at the initiative of the Ukrainian side had a telephone conversation occurred between Zelensky and Putin.
What Europe needs
“I want to reiterate the wish of France, together with Germany, to support you in this work, Mr. President, and facilitate dialogue with Russia”, — said the President of France Emmanuel macron at a press conference following talks with Vladimir Zelensky in June.
Macron also stated that the time has come to hold talks in the Normandy format at the level of heads of state, but before that, according to the politician, “we need certain steps and arrangements”.
In Europe Zelensky was received warmly enough, although the first visits of the Ukrainian leader to the West was soon spoiled by the return of Russia in PACE.
Ukraine has openly stated about the loss of EU support in the confrontation between Kyiv and Moscow.
“We all hurt from the betrayal of Europe. But really, the main problem is not even that. It will be worse if Russia and Europe decide that they can negotiate behind our backs and try to impose on us someone else’s strategy and tactics,” — commented on the return of Russia to the PACE, foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin.
Vladimir Zelensky in turn stated that he had raised this issue in meetings with European politicians, but it was already solved.
European leaders do without enthusiasm talking about the usual Russian “aggression” against Ukraine. After the change of government in this country, Europe, speaking about Kiev, puts the center of the agenda of economic reform.
On 8 July, the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, and Zelensky made a joint statement at the summit Ukraine — EU in Kiev.
The document consists of 14 points, ten of which are devoted to issues of internal policy of the country. The statement said that Ukraine has made progress in some reforms, but Kiev should devote more efforts to fight corruption.
The EU, together with the mission of the International monetary Fund (IMF) regularly assesses the implementation of reforms in the country, directly depends on the allocation of tranches in the framework of macro-economic aid of €500 million.
The EU Ambassador to Ukraine Hugh Mingarelli in an interview with “European truth” called the fight against corruption a priority, one should focus on the new government of the country.
“We always say that it is very important to make greater efforts to ensure the rule of law, the diplomat said. — I don’t want to say “corruption, corruption, corruption”, creating a link between this word and the Ukraine. Prefer the term “rule of law”.
According to Mingarelli, Vladimir Zelensky assured him that puts before itself two major goals — the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass and the fight against corruption. In addition, the diplomat believes that the new government should focus on the economy.
“The fact that “servant of the people” received the majority reflects the will of Ukrainian citizens. At the same time, we hope that the new majority, first, to take into account the opinion of the opposition, and secondly – will use their power with good purpose, namely to accelerate reforms,” said Mingarelli.
Despite such a good result, “Servants of the people” in the elections to the Parliament, Ukrainian media does not cover the issue of coalition. And most likely the Union is considered “Servants” and “the Voice” musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.
Vladimir Zelensky is not necessary to form a majority with other parties, however, as noted, it is necessary to Washington.
The Ukrainian edition “Страна.Ua” with reference to sources close to the state Department reports that the leader of the “Voices” will be for US a guarantee that Zelensky will not take steps towards Russia.
“With Vakarchuk’s “servants of the people” want to impose a coalition agreement in which there will be nothing of the main electoral promises Zelensky. The part of the us elite that does not want solution to the problem in the Donbass, that’s what it takes. And that’s her point of view was voiced by a number of mass media”, — notes the edition.
Vakarchuk is known for his Pro-Western views, and his rhetoric on the part of foreign policy is almost identical to the rhetoric of Poroshenko. Unlike the President, he quite clearly outlined their priorities: membership in NATO to counter “Russian aggression”. For example, he has proposed to introduce criminal responsibility for negotiations with Russia.
Washington is really not helping to change the policies of the new government of Ukraine in respect of Donbass. In late may, the special envoy of the US state Department in Ukraine Kurt Volker, answering a question of Kommersant about the willingness to push Kiev to respect the Minsk agreements, said that “Ukraine can’t do any more than she already did.”
“At the same time, Russia should implement the agreement on a ceasefire, to withdraw from the region to contribute to the disbandment of illegal armed groups and the elimination of “people’s republics”, which does not exist in the Ukrainian Constitution and who were not parties to the Minsk agreements. In General, Russia still remains to be done in order to stop the war in the Donbass”, — he said.
According to Volcker, the goal of the new government of Ukraine is to “become a magnet to regions that are now occupied by Russia”.
In early June, the U.S. Congress also began to consider the draft law “On providing support to Ukraine to protect its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”, providing for the transfer of Kiev lethal defensive means and granting the country the status of the main political and military ally of the US.
However, the us government, like Russia, were in no hurry to build a line of relations with Ukraine before parliamentary elections. During the presidential campaign, Washington has stressed that it is not supporting neither candidate, however, Kurt Volker is still not restrained from indicate their preferences.
“Now elections are held in Ukraine, which remind of the French elections, or Brexit, or even elections in the US – when there is a candidate who clearly opposed the political establishment. Against the President, who said: I worked hard, I’ve done a lot, I have a lot of accomplishments and lots of work to do.
And now Ukrainians face the choice of whether they want someone who just stands against the establishment and promises big reforms, or they want one that in some sense their disappointment, but spent more reforms in Ukraine than anyone in the last 20 years and is opposed to Putin?” said Walker in an interview with PBS television before the second round of the presidential election.
25 Jul Kurt Volker arrived to Ukraine. He has already met with Vladimir Zelensky and discussed the situation in the Donbass. He also met with Petro Poroshenko.
The President of Ukraine thanked the U.S. for its efforts at achieving a peaceful settlement of the conflict, and its predecessor noted the support of Washington in the matter of restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and “anti-aggression”.
Meanwhile, the United States approved the detention of the Russian tanker “the new government” in Ukraine.
“The way Ukraine has behaved in yesterday’s incident with the tanker, says that the new government intends to protect the interests of the country not only firmly, but humanely and in accordance with international standards. It is a good precedent for the peaceful settlement of disputes”, — stated in the statement of the U.S. Embassy in Twitter.
What should the Ukrainians themselves
To prolong his political career, ex-President Petro Poroshenko has had to strike out his name from the party’s name. However, after the parliamentary elections, it is safe to say that the previous government failed to prolong the time. Fourth place is the best result, yesterday the government of Ukraine, all the other parties, which in the last four years had political weight, are unable even to overcome the 5% barrier.
Speaks volumes and the fact that second place in the elections took the party whose leaders have already started negotiations with Russia on several issues.
Despite the fact that “the Opposition platform” scored three times fewer votes than the “servant of the people”, the result is no less significant, though, because this political force confidently walked the party of Petro Poroshenko.
Anti-war rhetoric and emphasis on the end of the war, not on confrontation with an external enemy, became the main factor of success in the presidential and parliamentary elections.
It is understood in Europe. The EU Ambassador to Ukraine Hugh Mingarelli in an interview with “European truth” expressed the opinion that the government Poroshenko failed to give the Ukrainians what they need actually.
“Really took a significant reform. But at the same time, the vast majority of citizens continue to live in very difficult conditions. These people have not felt the impact of the reforms on their daily lives. And that, in my opinion, explains why people wanted to get rid of the previous political class,” he said.