The most likely cause of the next recession will be trade policy, a correction in the stock market or a geopolitical crisis. Demand for real estate will decline, but this sector should not expect a major threat.
While the period of economic development has already become the longest in history and, most likely, will cease not soon. However, in 2020, the recession could begin.
This result was obtained in the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey conducted by Pulsenomics LLC for the firm Zillow. In the quarterly survey of more than 100 economists were asked to make predictions about the state of the housing market. According to 50% of the experts, the recession will not begin before 2020, 19% believe it will happen in the third quarter of 2019, and 35% suggested that the problems will be felt no earlier than 2021-th.
As said Skylar Olsen, the Director of the division of economic research, Zillow, only 12 respondents said that the reason the recession will be a decline in the real estate market. Other respondents believe that this decline will affect the overall situation, but will not play a key role.
However, 51% of the experts believe that the demand for housing in the current year will be lower than in 2019, and only 17% expect growth. Finding buyers will take more time, although in 2018 it was only 11 weeks, but sellers on average will decrease more than 2% of the initial price.
It is worth noting that if the December 2018 the estate has risen at an annual rate of 8.1% in June 2019, the growth of this indicator was only 5.2%, which was the minimum, starting in 2015. Overall this year prices will rise by 4.1%, but in 2020 this figure is forecast is expected to fall to 2.8% in 2021-m — up to 2.5%. And, as noted by the founder of Pulsenomics, Terry Labs, although mortgage rates with 30-year maturities close to the minimum of 18 months, the shortage of vacant sites and their high cost remain the main causes that negatively affect the level of demand.