Republicans fear the “tsunami of Exodus”

Recently to 6 people has increased the number of representatives the minority party in the lower house of Congress, who announced that he would not again stand as a candidate. Two, Bradley Byrne (Alabama) and Greg Gianforte (MT) are going to pursue a political career, but will run for another office.

If, for example, for the loss of Paul Mitchell counties (mi) and Martha Roby (al) fear is not necessary, that in Texas, the successor to Pete Olson, who scored last year only 5 percentage points more than the opponent, he can become a Democrat — especially given the fact that this party is a priority to regions with rapidly growing populations, like the suburbs of Houston.

Noteworthy is that these politicians made the decision earlier than usual, because, as a rule, such statements are made after the parliamentary recess in August or even Christmas. But, as acknowledged by one prominent Republican Congressman, it is possible that his colleagues had already decided plans because they are not satisfied with “stagnation” in the minority, especially in the victory doubtful.

As noted by Tom Davis, former Congressman from Virginia and former head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the transition from among the members of the majority, which until the last election was the Republicans in both houses, could have a demoralizing effect. In addition, representatives of the party now do not particularly “Shine” in public, not to answer questions from unhappy constituents, to justify the actions of the President of Donald trump or explain why an increasing influence on the decisions of the faction becomes the ultra-right Freedom Union Caucus.

The spin doctors of the party do not exclude that some members of Congress, after consulting with relatives during the holidays, will be announced in the near future about your unwillingness to continue the political career. First and foremost concern is the 20 Republicans that won in 2018 with a margin of less than 5 percentage points, and 25, whose advantage was less than 10 points.

But Chris Peck, press Secretary for the NRCC, headed now Tom Emmer from Minnesota, expressed the belief that this will not happen, and the monitoring program in the troubled districts will pick up strong candidates.

For their part, the Democrats hope in every way to make life difficult for Republicans, who in 2018 least won a convincing victory, but in General I believe that the rest will take 19 of their opponents. Perhaps the situation will become clearer in September, when North Carolina held a special election. They were appointed after the 2018 Republican Mark Harris was convicted of tampering with the sent mail ballots, whereby the result of the vote was annulled. And now for the post which he never took, fighting his fellow state Senator Dan Bishop, and former opponent, a veteran of the Iraq war Dan McCready.

History also “suggests” that the chances of the Republicans for a positive result is low. The last time the party lost their majority in the midterm elections, but returned it in 2 years, dates back to 1948 when President for a full term was the Democrat Harry Truman. While no political force did not achieve the same results from 1952 — when Republicans narrowly won election to Congress, and the President was elected their spokesman Dwight Eisenhower.

The not so distant past and even suggests that the presence of conservatives in the minority may be delayed. The rating of trump is only slightly more than 40%, and some members of Congress did not exclude that next year he would lose.

Y. Z.

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