During 5 of the 6 polls, which this year carried the NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, it was found that Donald trump is not popular among the voters of the suburbs, including such groups as white women, and white with higher education.
“Until November 2020 is still a lot of time, but in General I believe that the President will not be easy to win in the suburbs of sympathy that more and more people give to the Democrats,” said Professor Terry Madonna, a specialist in the field of public administration and sociology from Franklin & Marshall College, located in Pennsylvania.
In the state in 2016, trump won by a margin of approximately 44 thousand votes, or less than 1 percentage point. Equally precarious position it was in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Democrats previously quite could count on success. And advantage their opponent was so small that any changes in the attitudes of voters from the suburbs can lead to the fact that in these States will again support the Democratic candidate.
The existence of such problems, which drew attention Patrick Murray, Director Monmouth University Polling Institute, recognized by the strategists of the Republicans. Some of them say that the party began to lose support in the suburbs before the election of 2016 because many local voters, speaking for conservative approaches in the implementation of fiscal policy, do not share the same views on social issues. But experts, who compiled an internal report in 2013, after MITT Romney lost to Barack Obama, stressed that “politicians should not to turn to but themselves, because they lose the opportunity to attract those who agree with them in everything.”
To win trump in 2016, not counting many of his party members, but he proved that he can attract the white, working class. However, it is noticeable that his harshness and intransigence begins to bore the voters. The Republican strategist Liz Mair added: “it Was great when trump as host of the show The Apprentice appeared on television for 1-2 hours a week, but now he constantly reminds himself and those tired of daily drama primarily women, living in the suburbs”.
Other experts are concerned that policy decisions may not find the support of the centrists. So, according to Doug Haye, the former communications Director Republican National Committee, voters especially reacted negatively to the fact that illegal immigrants detained at the southern border, began to take children.
However, trump’s supporters are confident that, as in 2016, when at the preliminary stage, he opposed the 16 is much more experienced in politics opponents, he will again be able to achieve victory. Into the hands of the President is the ongoing active development of the economy, the state of which special attention is paid by residents of the suburbs.
At the same time in such settlements trump and generally his party is losing support. If in 2016 he scored in the located districts 4 points more than Hillary Clinton, then in 2018 in the midterm elections, the votes between Republicans and Democrats were equally divided. Although 3 years ago the police were called to 48% of whites with higher education, and for Clinton to 45% in 2018 in this category, the Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 8 points — 53% against 45. And if among the white women who graduated from College in 2016, supporters, Clinton was 7 points more, in 2018, the preponderance of Democrats has increased to 20 points.
In addition, a survey conducted Kvinnebasen University in late July showed that 57 percent of white graduates had firmly decided not to vote for trump, 12%, most likely, will not support it, and only 30% will be on the side of the President. Meanwhile, according to NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, generally in the suburbs his supporters 3 points less than opponents.
As suggested by Mair, the President is unlikely to change their behavior, although it causes the polar opposite evaluations, and therefore, it is particularly difficult to increase their popularity in the suburbs. In her opinion, such a chance will appear, if the opponent of the Democrats will behave at least as stringent. But it is likely that they nominated a centrist, which is the background of the trump might be almost a model of consistency and of political prudence. And these candidates would be more likely to attract the inhabitants of small localities, where in comparison with other counties, may be the tough competition.