Kiev said about the failure of the withdrawal of troops in the Donbass and the situation in Ukraine is becoming more unpredictable. Protests put pressure on Vladimir Zelensky, however, and give him a carte Blanche in dealing with Western partners. However, Ukrainian politics have crossed too many interests that authorities were able to quickly deal with the current situation. Who is behind the disruption of the withdrawal of troops in Eastern Ukraine and protests in Kiev, to understand “Газета.Ru”.
Progress towards the settlement of the situation in the Donbass — once again — postponed. 7 October was disrupted breeding troops near the villages of Petrovskoe and gold on the contact line with the self-proclaimed Luhansk people’s Republic. The reason for the attack of positions of VSU, said the Ukrainian foreign Ministry.
“A few days ago was fired and Petrovskoye, and gold. And our decision was that the breeding will start on the seventh day after these plots will be saved peace, there will be attacks. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until the next seven-day period [of silence], to prove that the parties have serious intentions,” — said the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vadim pristayko.
At the same time in the breakaway republics stated that the cause of this failure could be self-attacks.
“A-attacks is a long — standing tactic of Kiev to disrupt the agreement about breeding. The village allegedly fired regularly, while Kiev do not decided to dissolve the army. And then everything calmed down”, — wrote in his telegram channel LC representative in the political subgroup Rodion Miroshnik.
However, it should consider that the current situation is significantly different from the one that was in the ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. The current Kiev authorities are unlikely to benefit from such developments. Still we should not forget that Vladimir Zelensky came to power on a wave of public expectations about the end of the war in the Donbass.
Ukrainian experts shared the opinion that neither Zelensky nor his environment is not favorable for the breakdown of agreements about breeding troops in the East of the country.
“Zelensky was pledged, and now it breaks. It’s not on the President’s hand. Another thing is that mass protests, which take place in Kiev for the signing of the “formula Steinmeier” can be beneficial Zelensky, to show the countries participating in the “Normandy format” that he has serious resistance to urge to understand his situation and go to meet him”,
says in an interview with “Газетой.Ru” Director of the Kiev Center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
I agree with this and the ex-Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Oliynyk, who emphasizes that the current development of events, losing in the first place, the Ukrainian people and of course himself Zelensky.
“He took upon himself the promises in the shortest possible time to end the war. Now he can not convert the ratings to support,” he says.
But the problem is not even that continues Olejnik, the problem is that “Zelensky afraid of people, afraid to communicate directly with the people.” “Not just in recording and on television, but from the soul — just look into the eyes and clearly explain their positions,” — said the source “Газеты.Ru”.
Mass protests, which take place in Kiev, — a consequence of the signing on 1 October of the Ukrainian side of the so-called “formula Steinmeier”, which establishes the mechanism of implementation of certain provisions of the Minsk agreements. This mechanism suggests that in “some regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (as Kiev calls beyond the control of the DNI and LC) shall enter into force the law “On special order of local self-government”, and in these areas the elections are held in accordance with Ukrainian legislation (an obligatory — recognition of their results by the OSCE).
The signing of the “formula” many media called sensational, but essentially nothing particularly revolutionary about it: it just arranges the sequence of the individual — even not all, but only two of the 13 points of the Minsk agreements. In fact, it’s the same agreement that was reached in February 2015.
It is interesting that the representatives of the former authorities, which, in fact, signed the Minsk agreement, now actively act against their implementation, the mechanism of which is determined by the “formula Steinmeier”.
“Formula Steinmeier” was invented in the Kremlin protects Russian interests. Taking a “formula Steinmeier”, Ukraine had voluntarily renounced the road map for the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which was supported by our German and French partners”, — said Poroshenko, speaking in Parliament on 2 October.
Noteworthy is the fact that the “formula” is a political product of the West, thus, Poroshenko shifts the responsibility for the imposition of the Kiev mechanism to Berlin and Paris. At the same time, Western countries consistently for many years urged Moscow “to meet its part of the Minsk agreements”, as Russia had not answered, that is not a party to domestic conflict.
At the same time the “formula” is not a panacea, because even attempt to implement it yet in a particular sequence.
“Steinmeier several ran forward — he said that the shelling stopped, withdrew, the law was passed. But the law is not adopted, is not approved by the representatives of the republics of Donbass. The “formula” we need somehow to register in the Constitution. The situation turns out that in Kiev divide a skin of not killed bear, moreover, the bear has not even seen,”
— says Oleynik.
Anyway, the signing of the “formula Steinmeier” has launched in Ukraine a series of protests under the slogan “No surrender.” It is just such actions of Kiev, as they are called Ukrainian experts, representatives of the “aggressive minority” of supporters of nationalist views.
The last such rally on October 6 gathered on Independence square, according to various estimates, from 5 to 10 thousand people. And here the team worked Zelensky wrong.
“The Ukrainian government is acting very unprofessional, she does not take any preventive measures to avoid such actions. Zelensky enjoys enormous support from the population, but any attempt to mobilize the population to support the President’s actions the government has taken, says Pogrebinsky, noting, however, that the Ukrainian leader is somehow going to have to bring down the intensity of the protests. – It is not clear how, but, most likely, will use all tools to grow the protest and to preserve the possibility to move towards implementation of the Minsk agreements”.
It’s the only thing you can say now. Indeed, Zelensky is stalled, and Volodymyr Oliynyk, estimating the position of the President of Ukraine, and all said that that was late in his reaction, and now he will have to deal with what he has.
Another question — who might be behind the protests. It is clear that Petro Poroshenko, no matter how much I tried to curb a wave of protest, is so rated that it is unlikely that he can become the leader of the resistance.
Plus, in Ukraine with the coming to power Zelensky, indeed, changed the configuration of power, not all, believe the Ukrainian interlocutors “Газеты.Ru” satisfied with the current situation.
Some participants in the political process and is beneficial to expose Zelensky as a weak President, is the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and interior Minister Arsen Avakov, said Vladimir Oleynik.
The second interest is clearly seen in the statement of the head of the paramilitary unit “Azov” (the far-right group that many leaders and members in Russia criminal cases) Andrey Biletsky that fighters of a regiment of the 7th of October took up positions near the village of Golden, where was to begin the withdrawal of troops.
He Biletsky says that the militants did it at the request of local residents.
“If its duty is to defend every centimetre of Ukrainian land — does not the President, the government, we will fulfill once again we, the veterans are volunteers. We make a promise that we will never leave our last checkpoint,” — said Biletsky in the video (the video is posted on YouTube).
However Oleynik is pretty clearly marked that the head of the “Azov” is in a subordinate position, and “without money and not going to do”. According to the interlocutor “Газеты.Ru” for Biletsky is Kolomoisky.
It should be noted that the journalist “Газеты.Ru” in August 2019 during his visit to Kiev, one of the locals, to communicate with supporters of nationalist views, said that in Ukraine, in fact, a lot of “people with guns who are waiting for their moment.”
“Once that moment comes, there could begin a real “Makhnovshchina” — shared from Kiev their feelings.
This is also confirmed by Mikhail Pogrebinsky, speaking about alternatives to the Minsk agreements, which emerges in Kiev. “It is a continuation of the current situation of sluggish attacks, periodically when people are dying on both sides of the confrontation. Or victory is the people who don’t want peace, they want war. There is a minority that is configured so aggressively that they will filibuster any attempt to find a compromise and come to some settlement.
I think that many of those involved in the current protests, I believe that the Donbass will never be part of Ukraine — they want to get rid of this once and for all Donbass”, — said the expert.
In the end, Zelensky was in the center of the intersection of too many interests. On the one hand, the main guarantee of the preservation of its rating and a mandate for power — the end of the war in the Donbas, or at least a considerable advancement towards the settlement of the conflict. On the other he is bound by the requirements of the nationalists, behind which lurk quite a serious force. Don’t forget that concrete results expected of him and partners in the West — it is solution to this problem, in fact, depend on external infusions into the Ukrainian economy.
However, many forces are trying to work at discrediting the image Zelensky and sustain the conflict with Russia. And so far for the Ukrainian President in all these issues for the future remain quite unclear. However, it is clear that the act of the Ukrainian leader needs quickly enough — the next protest is scheduled for 13 October, and the organizers promise to bring in “Maidan” even more participants.