Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the victim of another defeat in Parliament, does not manage to fulfill his promise to bring the country out of the EU until October 31. And trying to eliminate the opposition preventing it through early elections. The European Union, meanwhile, took a pause and not responding on the delay of Brexit.
Before the scheduled date Brexit remained a week, and the UK did not agree to withdraw from the EU. The EU procrastinating for another delay, while the deputies of the house of Commons have to vote for the early elections on 12 December. This requires Boris Johnson, who apparently is desperate to fulfill his main promise — Brexit October 31, “with a deal or without.”
However, the current Prime Minister still can be called more successful than his predecessor, Theresa may. Johnson managed to win approval of the deal on Brexit by Parliament.
Johnson won the battle but not the war
On 17 October the Prime Minister agreed with Brussels about amending the paragraph about the fate of Northern Ireland. In accordance with the new agreement, Northern Ireland will remain in the customs area of the UK, but will also be part of the single market of the European Union. However, London will apply the customs regulations of the EU and to implement fees for goods in the European Union through Northern Ireland.
After the transition period, the contract will be renewed every four years with the consent of the Northern Ireland Assembly by majority vote.
Is to pay tribute to Boris Johnson and the European Union was indeed more accommodating to those who are ready to slam the door. This politician was convinced the conservatives and the British, when the tories elect a new Prime Minister.
The Parliament, though in the end and approved the agreement, have made every effort to slow down the process. 19 Oct MPs not to vote on the transaction. Instead, they endorsed the amendment, which obliges to pass a bill ratifying the new agreement. Thus, they have left the Prime Minister no choice but to ask the EU about the new delay.
It is unclear what the aims of the deputies, demanding to change the order of the adoption agreement. If they rejected the deal, then Johnson and so had to seek a postponement.
“I think this is a political move, because they have prepared this agreement a year and a half ago. They had a year and a half in details to study all the details, but they instead explore and something to do, just rejected him. Johnson suggested that, in General, the same agreement, just changed the mechanism of the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, he essentially changed nothing. Now again they say they need a lot of time to learn,” — said in a conversation with “Газетой.Ru” associate Professor of European law at MGIMO, Director of the Center European information Nikolai Topornin.
Johnson, who said that the best “die in a ditch” than it will ask Brussels to postpone the date of Brexit, the EU sent two completely opposite meanings of the letter — one asked about the new delay, in the other the Prime Minister said that the postponement of the deadline would be a mistake. However, first he did not sign because he sent him only for the fulfillment of the law.
On 22 October in the House of Commons still held the vote, the law on ratification of the agreement was supported by 329 deputies, against have voted 299. To celebrate the victory, the Prime Minister did not — after Parliament rejected an accelerated timetable Brexit, which gave the deputies three days for consideration of the agreement instead of 21.
“Still, the country is split into two parts. Two camps are, they are just about identical. The labour party represent the interests of the second camp, that is, the side that doesn’t want to leave the EU, so they slow down and realize that if they don’t manage to slow down, well then at least they will accept some kind of agreement that minimizes the loss, which, in their opinion, bear country anyway. In parallel, they want to extract political dividend to annoy conservatives and some benefit for themselves to” — explains Nikolay Topornin.
Johnson himself even before the vote, said that in case of failure, and the new postponement, he would withdraw the agreement from the Parliament and seek early elections.
As Johnson released the Brits
“I in any case will not let this be delayed for months. If Parliament gets its way and decides to postpone Brexit until January or perhaps in the longer term, the government under any circumstances will not do it, and I’m terribly sorry to have to say that in this case the bill will be withdrawn and we will have to call a General election”, — the politician said.
October 24, in interview “Bi-bi-si” he said, which will give MPs time to more careful examination of the bill in exchange for the agreement of the labour party to hold General elections on 12 December. On 28 October MPs will consider this issue.
The EU, meanwhile, today was supposed to answer the new delay. However, with the statement Brussels decided to wait until the vote in the British Parliament for snap elections.
To ensure that the elections took place on 12 December, two-thirds of MPs must vote in favour. While the Prime Minister still hopes that the EU will give him a short respite until the middle or end of November. In this case, he will continue to fight for the deal, and the House of Commons during the month will be paid and to consider various amendments to the agreement.
In the case of a long delay for the premiere of the preferred option are elections that will redistribute the balance of power in the British Parliament and perhaps will change the course of Brexit. But on Monday, MPs will have to act without regard to the decision of the European Union, which will remain silent until the results of the vote.
The leader of the opposition labour party Jeremy Corbyn already stated to Johnson that he would support early elections if Johnson will completely eliminate the “hard” Brexit.
“To negotiate about anything they failed because they have completely different were the approaches. I have the impression that the parties are talking about Brexit, but to somehow Brexit and their political ambitions to combine”, — said Topornin.
The labour party fear that after the election Johnson will lead Britain out of the EU without a deal. The same position is shared by Liberal Democrat and Scottish national party.
If the labour party will not support Johnson on Monday, he promised to work “to free the citizens of the country from Parliament, which has become useless”.
In such an unstable and chaotic political situation to predict election results almost impossible. However, many sociological studies show that in the case of early voting, the chances of the labour party is not a good.
“The conservatives are leading the country towards the exit. They are such a force that wants to implement the will of the people expressed in the referendum. And they are the voters saying, “Look how much we offered, and Theresa may was offered, and Boris Johnson was offered, and one agreement, and another, and exit without a deal, that is all the options. But opposition prevented, so we are ready to do the will of the people, but we interfere with the labour party”. So, perhaps, after all, they have a moral advantage because they consistently pursue a policy of withdrawal from the EU”, — said Mykola Topornin.
According to YouGov, the conservatives rating is 37%, while Corbin’s party got only 22%. In third place is the liberal Democrats (19%), then the party Brexit (11%) and, finally, the Green party (7%).The results of the September poll, ComRes, the rating of the conservatives depends on whether Johnson, his promise to avoid a new delay.
Approximately the same picture is demonstrated by surveys conducted by the service DeltaPoll in October. The conservatives can count on 37% support, labour on 24%.
These polls show that labour could lose about 10% of the seats in the House of Commons. Currently, the party is a 243 seats (out of 650) in the Parliament, but early elections they can lose 24 seats.
“Polls say that the election win of the Conservative party. The question is whether it is able to obtain an absolute majority or it would be restricted to a relative majority. Therefore, as we have seen, surveys of public opinion suggests that opposition in the face of the labour party these great early elections will bring no benefits, so they are not particularly eager to hold them in the near future, — said Mykola Topornin. — It turns out that the party Brexit Nigel Farage 11%. This, even a little, but the mandates they have and maybe that in sum with the Conservative party they this amount will be enough for most. Already planned some kind of Alliance in these elections, so that the prospect of Johnson is, he’s more interested in elections than the labour party”.