In the UK on Thursday will be held early parliamentary elections. If the conservatives fail to win a majority of votes, Prime Minister Boris Johnson could easily lose their place in Downing street, and the party gaining the most votes, will have the right to form a government and determine the relations of the Kingdom with the European Union.
In the UK on 12 December will be held early parliamentary elections. From 7am (10.00 GMT) to 10 PM (01.00 MSK Friday) citizens can vote for representatives of parties in the majority districts. In fact, on this vote, the British decide not what will be the composition of Parliament, and choose the course of development in the next five years, as well as the fate of Brexit.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson could promote their plans for Brexit, which fall again had to postpone, the conservatives need to win an absolute majority — that is, a minimum of 326 seats in the House of Commons of 650. This is due to the fact that none of the other parties, can enter into the composition of the Parliament, not in favor of the Johnson deal with the European Union.
Under the contract of Johnson, who has previously endorsed the EU, Northern Ireland after Brexit will abide by the rules of customs regulation in the UK, however, will remain in the single market of the EU. In respect of internal trade between Northern Ireland and great Britain will apply to British customs regulations and tariffs, while goods aimed at the European market and already fall under the European regulation. In the future, Northern Ireland will be able to choose economic regime, which is closer to her. Such a deal partly solves the most painful aspect of the “divorce” of London and Brussels customs.
According to the Prime Minister, it will be “a good deal for the whole of the UK, particularly for Northern Ireland.”
Although the Treaty met with resistance in the Parliament, the inhabitants of the country, obviously, support the policy of the government, which was willing to withdraw from the EU even without a deal. According to the autumn YouGov survey, 41% of Britons were in favour of the adoption by the legislators of the new agreement. It was opposed by 24%.
As told in conversation with “Газетой.Ru” one of the residents of London
people are very tired of the uncertainty on the issue of Brexit and is rather just want a solution.
“Ordinary people are unable to plan anything, businesses are closing,” he says.
At the same time, most of the opposition forces want to hold a new referendum and again ask residents the question: “Should Britain leave the EU?” Since then, as subjects of the Kingdom chose to withdraw from the Union with a separation from opponents of this idea only 3.8%, it’s been 3.5 years, and the opinion of citizens who have lived in their exhausting uncertainty could change, they say.
Most people, however, suggests that the mood about leaving the EU almost did not change — British society remained split in two, as in 2016, when to leave the European Union, voted is 51.9%.
To break the “red wall”
In this case, if the current Prime Minister will not be able to get the most votes, he could easily lose his place in Downing street.
However, one must not overlook the fact that in some regions, supporting the main opposition force — the labour party, is the so-called border of the parliamentary seats. In these areas the “Reds” beat the conservatives on the final vote in 2017, with a negligible margin. Thus, although the tories failed to win in any of the electoral districts, in many of them you could see a reversal in the direction of the Conservative party, mainly among the people who advocate “divorce” with the EU.
While in North-Eastern Wales, the Midlands and the North of England, these counties form the “red wall” of the labour party, which this year may not survive.
According to Jason Cooper, the representative of Brexit the party in Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of these “edge” cities — at this point, supporters of the labour party to vote for his party for tactical reasons.
“Many supporters of the labour party want out of the EU, but they will never vote for conservatives. They also don’t like [the leader of the labour party Jeremy] Corbin”,
— said the representative of political force, which was founded only in January this year and participate in the elections for the first time.
He noted that for ordinary people the question of Brexit is associated not so much with the economic component, but with the sovereignty of the country. “Europe wants to keep us because they want our money. But leaving the EU — the lesser of two evils,” he said.
At the same time, according to a local representative of the labour party Carl Greatbatch, many Tory supporters will not vote for them because they do not want to allow Brexit.
“Big cities vote for the labour party, a little behind the tories. The economy is based on large cities”,
— he considers.
According to Greibach, Boris Johnson, urging to vote for the conservatives, lobbying for only one idea — out of the EU, not really offering anything more.
The current election campaign is remarkable in the number of active calls for tactical voting. The surveys show that the overall level of support as the gap with the European Union and opposing positions, remains almost equal. However, if support is left mostly goes to the conservatives, the rest of the votes split mostly between labour and the liberal Democrats.
Thus, according to the YouGov survey, commissioned by the television channel Sky News, Tory needs to 42.6% of the vote against 43.4 per cent at the end of the 2017 elections, while the opposition labour party gaining 33.8% of the vote, compared with 41% two years ago. For the Liberal Democrats voice ready to give 13.6% of respondents. Party Brexit tipped support for 3.1% of Britons.
Considering the features existing in the UK majoritarian electoral system, a balance of power in the elections can provide conservatives a comfortable majority in Parliament.
The survey authors predict that the ruling party will receive from 311 to 367 seats in Parliament, so it is not and the possibility that none of the parties will not get majority. This situation is called a “hung Parliament” is fraught with delay and uncertainty on the question of Brexit.
Who and for what?
While the eurosceptic Johnson focuses on promises to withdraw Britain from the EU until 31 January without any further delays and procrastination, his opponents show quite different views on the successful future of the country.
Thus, the head of the labour party Jeremy Corbyn promotes the idea of a new referendum, which plans to spend in the first six months after the potential rise to power.
The leader of the “Reds” have already announced the nationalization of the Railways and dealing with energy and water companies, if you take the Prime Minister’s office.
“Liberal Democrats”, led by their new leader Joe Swinson and do intend to refuse to “divorce” with Brussels.
According to estimates of the organization Best for Britain, voices are only 40 thousand people in 36 constituencies will not give the tories to gain a majority. While the elections in the UK are based largely on trust: everything is done by hand, to vote at the polling station don’t even need the document — enough to give his name. Make your choice by mail and by proxy.