Donald trump continues to put pressure on Germany through the withdrawal of US troops from German territory to include Berlin in its anti-China campaign, and to deprive him of the ability to maintain neutrality in this issue. The ongoing White house policy of threats reinforces the indignation of Germany, partly pushing the country to cooperate with Beijing. However, from the point of view of experts, the loss of neutrality will play against Germany, although the German government and aware of the need for greater autonomy from the United States.
The President of the United States Donald trump in an interview with The Washington Post reiterated its willingness to transfer part of the American troops from Germany to Poland. “I’ll give about half [of soldiers] home, and the other half will go to the places that deserve it,” said trump.
Information about what Washington is going to relocate about 9, 5 thousand American soldiers with German territory there in June. In Berlin such a decision is not perceived negatively, as a justification the White house uses two long-standing and contentious relationship of the parties — Germany’s unwillingness to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP and the desire of the German authorities to complete the project “Nord stream — 2”.
The transfer of the US military in Poland, among other things, likely to create tension in interaction with Moscow — reinforcement contingent on Polish territory would be a violation of the Founding act NATO-Russia, namely the provisions on the placement of “substantive” in the number of military Alliance near the Russian border.
However, this fact does not seem to bother US. From the point of view of the White house, the reasons for the withdrawal of soldiers is quite compelling, although a number of Western media blamed the situation on “a personal insult” trump on German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Supposedly the wrath of the American leader due to the reluctance of the head of the German government to go to Washington in the midst of a pandemic coronavirus COVID-19 to participate in the summit “the big seven”.
From an economic point of view this is a disadvantage for Germany — will suffer a local community that these American soldiers provided the work, said in a conversation with “Газетой.Ru” the head of the Center for German studies Institute of Europe RAS Vladislav Belov.
“In this sense the withdrawal of the military, except that the lobbying of Poland coincided with the desire of trump to specify Germany in its place. The President of the United States “punishes” Berlin for non-compliance.
Most Western experts called the decision trump stupidity. Perhaps in the Pentagon, common sense will prevail, and the President of the United States only to bring this matter before the election of the President. However, with high probability he will go to this step from a purely populist reasons that are not consistent with the objective interests of Washington within the framework of NATO in Europe”, — said the expert.
If we reject the official explanation of the United States and look at the big picture, the desire of Washington to tell Berlin “in his place” by the withdrawal of the military contingent can be considered in the framework of the anti-Chinese campaign of the White house.
The US has long been hyping the image of the aggressor to China, but in pandemic the pressure White house on China has increased significantly — the us side is trying to hang on Beijing to blame for the outbreak of the pandemic and suspects Chinese scholars, almost to the invention of the virus.
To deter and fight with China, the United States urges all its allies, but any strong impact not get. This applies in particular to the European partners of Washington, which do not hurry to take a side in the conflict between the two powers.
The EU is certainly concerned about the situation around Beijing, but not in a hurry to impose sanctions against its strategic partner.
In particular, this fact applies to Germany, which is trying to maintain neutrality. Germany is unprofitable to take sides, because then it will lose the corresponding relationship with one of the parties. From an economic point of view, the China and the U.S. are key partners in Berlin, says Vladislav Belov.
“Germany is interested that the US and China as soon as possible found the common denominator of trade and economic interests. Germany in their right mind would take a particular position, while there is a conflict between Washington and Beijing”, — the expert specifies.
Thus, from the point of view of observers Politicо, Germany is the main lobbyist of a major investment agreement with China, which doesn’t sit well with US. And the reaction of Berlin for the withdrawal of US troops was quite revealing. In particular, Merkel to urge Europe to prepare for a new reality in which the American side will not seek to place the world leader.
“We have grown with a certain knowledge that the United States wants to be a world power. If the United States now want to cease to perform this role on their own, we need to think seriously about it,” said the Chancellor.
At the same time, the Minister of defence of Germany Annegret Kramp-of Karrenbauer made a cautious statement about the need to strengthen European security without regard to the United States, and foreign Minister Heiko Maas together with the Minister of Finance Olaf Stolz refused to go to Washington to meet with the Ministers of the G7 countries — thereby once again depriving the trump face-to-face negotiations.
Turn to China
Taking into account all the variables dissatisfaction with Berlin’s action gradually increased, this is reinforced by a General distrust of Europe to the Trump because of its ambiguous policy towards allies. Over the past three years the U.S. President has demonstrated a willingness to impose duties and sanctions against partners, to break the basic international agreements and to do all for the realization of national interests of their country.
In such conditions it is possible to assume that Germany could take a step towards China as one of its key partners.
Formally, this theory can be reinforced by the investment agreement, which allegedly relies in Berlin. However, according to scientific Director of the German-Russian forum Alexander Rahr, USA has actually broken the future transaction.
“Washington is going to force the Europeans at the summit “the big seven” gathered in an anti-China coalition, as quite clearly said trump. U.S. wants allies obey them and actually began implementing American interests. Merkel, of course, against this and wish to have their own relations with China. But here it interferes with trump, who by and large do not care about her wishes,” — said the expert.
Thus, the “turn to China” Germany will simply not be possible, since for objective reasons it is unlikely to go against its largest partner. Besides, do not forget that in fact, the whole policy of Berlin is consistent with the EU — of course, Germany could lobby for their interests, but their implementation depends on the opinions of the other countries of the enterprises.
However, in the German leadership understands that may have to go emancipation from the United States, says Alexander Rahr, although Berlin was not ready for such a step in the last 75 years. Such a solution will also require coordination in the EU is likely to vote against the majority of the countries of Eastern Europe, in particular Poland — which will go to the American soldiers.