The civil war in Libya could escalate the intervention of Egypt. Cairo is already conducting military exercises, practicing landing, and suffering defeat in the East has officially urged the Egyptians to the beginning of hostilities. If Egypt dares to take this step, the Middle East threatens global conflict.
The house of representatives of Libya, which controls the Eastern part of the country, sent to Egypt’s official request to assist the Libyan national army (LNA) led by field Marshal Khalifa the Haftarot military assistance.
As noted on the website of the Libyan Parliament, the request relates to a “direct military invasion of Turkey and the violation of the sovereignty of Libya.” Ankara officially supports the national consensus Government (NTC), headed by Faiz Barragem, which controls the Western part of the country.
“We urge the brotherly Egyptian army to join the Libyan army to counter occupation and protect the security of the country and the region.
Egyptian armed forces have the right to intervene to protect the Libyan and Egyptian national security, if they see an imminent threat to the security of our two countries,”
the statement of the Parliament.
Egypt low start
In Egypt the mood also remain fairly hawkish. In fact, the statement by the Libyan Parliament States that it is made in support of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi at the end of June.
He then, during a review of troops on one of the bases in the Western military district, said the possibility of military intervention in the Libyan conflict to “stop the bloodshed in the neighboring country and the border security”.
As a “red line” that cannot be crossed, the Egyptian leader has identified strategically important the LDF-controlled city of Sirte and the municipality of El Dzhufra. Until then, Egypt reserves right to arm and train the Libyan tribes on the East of the country.
Al-Sisi does not doubt the legitimacy of their intentions. In addition, it was pointed out that the intervention will take place only if asked to do so by the Libyans themselves.
And, although formally such a request had been received, of course, not all citizens are torn by internal conflict, the country will welcome international support. In the NTC statement, Al-Sisi called the “infringement of sovereignty” and a “Declaration of war”.
At the same time, according TV channel Al Arabiya, Cairo is actively negotiating with Europe to counter “the Turkish invasion of Sirte”. Appropriate warning Ankara has already been directed, according to channel sources, even in NATO are for the withdrawal of Turkey from Sirte.
As stated in conversation with “Газетой.Ru” senior lecturer of the school of Oriental studies, faculty of world economy and international Affairs NRU HSE Andrey Chuprygin,
in fact, Egypt intervenes in the conflict in Libya in 2014 along with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on the side of the LNA.
“The statement of Al-Sisi — the result of the fact that the army of the Haftarot has been squeezed out of the outskirts of Tripoli and was forced to retreat. Thus, these countries have been in a situation when their investment in the LDF are actually cleared. Therefore, the question arose about how to proceed, to continue support of the Haftarah or change positions. The words of the Egyptian President on the possibility of military intervention are not so much with Libya, as with Turkey,” — said the expert.
About the willingness of Cairo to military action say, not only the fiery speeches of the national leader. At the beginning of July on the border with Libya, the territory of Egypt held large-scale military exercises with the speaker called “Commitment 2020”. In these maneuvers involved all kind of the Egyptian armed forces.
The military expert, the Egyptian General Mahfouz marzouk said that the military exercises and testing of the landing show that Cairo is preparing a military operation. “The nature of the military exercises of the armed forces of Egypt, their scale… and the weapons indicate that Egypt began strategic preparations for the main military operation,” said marzouk, RIA “Novosti”.
The interest of Egypt in the LDF is quite understandable. First, Cairo is concerned with the question of internal security: the NTC is actively supported in the Russian Federation banned organization “Muslim brotherhood” (an organization banned in Russia), which Cairo was included in the list of terrorist organizations 7 years ago.
With representatives of this movement the Egyptian authorities are not the best memories: at least a wave of protests and violence across the country after the overthrow of President Mohammed Mursi, the representative of the “Muslim Brothers” by the coup in 2013.
In addition, Libya is a neighbor of Egypt on the African continent: the fighting there affect the safety of the Egyptian territory as a whole.
In addition, as for other players, for Egypt an important economic aspect. Do not forget that Libya remains the country with the largest oil reserves in Africa. Protracted conflict has downgraded its production, but the reserves are not affected.
In turn, Ankara is pursuing in Africa’s own interests, in particular, wanting to access the continental shelf in the Mediterranean sea with the help of PNS. In addition, Turkey supports the “Muslim brotherhood”, and in General certain claims on Libya fit into the informally conducted by Ankara’s policy of neo-Ottomanism, the aim is to increase Turkish influence in the territories of the former Ottoman Empire.
Turkey is hardly going to retreat from its interests in Libya. Ankara during the reign of Muammar Gaddafi has invested heavily in the country and obviously wants to recoup the money spent.
At the beginning of the Egyptian campaign in Libya to it, probably will join the regional allies of Cairo, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. On the side of Turkey will be Qatar, in particular, because of their ideological support “Muslim Brothers”.
So enough of the protracted Libyan conflict is likely to receive new development, in General, raising tensions in the region. The main point of contact for the parties will control which stretches from Sirte to Benghazi gate “oil Crescent” that they are not going to share.
“The clash with Turkey will lead to a huge explosion of problems of a military nature throughout the middle East. The region is now experiencing not the best times in its history, and it is fraught with consequences, mostly unwanted,” — said Andrey Chuprygin.
Hopes for peace
While at the official level, Egypt and Turkey still did not see the possibility of a military solution to the conflict in Libya. According to the foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov, during a recent telephone contacts confirmed the futility of this path.
“Both my colleague clearly spoke in favor of this approach: no military solution is necessary for all to recognize, you have to sit at the negotiating table and seek an agreement acceptable to all”, — stressed the Minister.
Al-Sisi also previously taken the initiative on overcoming of the crisis in Libya. Offers Cairo called for a complete cease-fire in Libya on 8 June and the withdrawal of all foreign mercenaries from the territory of the country. In addition, the Egyptian side proposed to disband armed groups and to transmit them to the arms of the LNA to power the Haftarot “took responsibility and mission to security” in the country.
The Cairo initiative also included an equal representation of all regions of Libya at the presidential Council which should be elected under the auspices of the UN.
In addition, it was proposed to unite all the state institutions of Libya and make a constitutional Declaration. In addition, Egypt called for the continuation of talks in Geneva of the joint military Commission of Libya in the format “5+5”.
This is the offer of the President of Egypt announced on 6 June following the meeting with the head of the LNA and the speaker of the Libyan house of representatives Aquila Saleh. The adoption of the identified provisions in the settlement in Libya will be the “beginning of a new stage on the way to return to a safe and normal life” in this country, quoted Al-Sisi portal Youm7.
But the initiative of Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi rejected in Tripoli. The head of the Supreme state Council, which acts in conjunction with the NTC, Khaled al-Masri underlined that the Libyans “do not need new initiatives,” and rejected the attempt of field Marshal Khalifa the Haftarot to return to negotiations.
At the same time the Haftarot, on the contrary, supported the proposal made by Al-Sisi. This initiative was welcomed and the Russian Embassy in Egypt. “After reviewing the content of the proposals of the President of Egypt, we certainly support any proposals to bring about a speedy cessation of hostilities in Libya,” — said RIA “Novosti” Deputy foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.
However, as it will develop the settlement process and whether parties come to a peaceful regulation of the issue is quite controversial. As noted by Andrey Chuprygin likely hand, howling directly in Libya, not really controlled by their foreign sponsors and allies. In the Republic, there is a persistent confrontation between the West and the East, which would be difficult to negate. In addition, even in the case of settlement of the conflict is unclear who can be a leader, able to unite Libya. While in the political arena such representatives simply do not.