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Can Donald Trump beat Joe Biden?

President Trump, the most controversial commander-in-chief in recent US history, has an uphill battle to beat Joe Biden with just one day left to sway the vote in his favour. A chasm has opened up in the polls between him and his Democrat opposition, as the US public rejects his recent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and opts for the unifying image of Mr Biden. Pundits have projected a seemingly overwhelming victory for Mr Biden tomorrow, prompting questions of whether the President has any chances of winning at all.

Can Donald Trump beat Joe Biden?

President Trump has run on a consistent deficit in the polls for almost the entire year, trailing behind Mr Biden by points in the mid to high single digits.

At times Mr Trump’s prospective vote share has decreased to as low as 42 percent while Mr Biden’s has shot to more than 52, giving him a lead in the double figures.

Confidence in the President has dwindled as a result, but experts remain convinced he can still win tomorrow.

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The President has been the long-time betting favourite to win the 2020 US election, with his odds at one point in February implying he had a 61.9 percent chance of defeating Joe Biden.

Donald Trump’s odds now sit at 15/8 which imply he’s got a 34.8 percent chance of securing another term, according to OddsChecker.

While this may look like a low likelihood of a win tomorrow, this doesn’t discount him from the race.

Nate Silver, American statistician and editor-in-chief of poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, said several factors could still hand him the election tomorrow.

He first asserted tight margins in the Electoral College – which traditionally runs closer than the popular vote – could unbalance Mr Biden’s confident lead.

In Pennsylvania, a state he needs to secure the majority of the college’s 538 seats, he has a five point lead in the polls.

The relatively slim lead could see him lost the state, without which he has fewer paths to victory.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast also warns of a four percent recount chance, and 0.5 percent chance of a tie in the college.

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Two things the forecast doesn’t account for – an “illegitimate” win for Mr Trump or polling error – could also hand the incumbent the election.

Mr Biden’s current lead, which suggests an impending landslide, should not give him too much security.

Writing on his site, Mr Silver said the former VP is only a few points from needing to fight for the Electoral College.

He wrote: “If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up.

“But if Biden wins the popular vote by less than 2 points, Trump is a fairly heavy favourite to win the election.

“Even popular vote margins of up to 6 points are not entirely safe for Biden if his votes are distributed in exactly the wrong way.”

“So you can see why an eight or nine-point lead in the popular vote shouldn’t make Biden feel that secure; despite being a landslide margin, it’s also only a few points removed from the inflection point where the Electoral College starts to become competitive.”

Mr Silver went on to add losing Pennsylvania would be enough to shake confidence in other states thanks to polling errors.

His slim leads in Florida and Georgia could collapse and end in him switching places in the race with Mr Trump.

On the other hand, winning Pennsylvania could boost his chances of winning elsewhere by more than 20 points.

Joe Biden started off the election race at the beginning of 2020 with just a 13 percent chance of being elected, OddsChecker said.

But the Democrat overtook Donald Trump as the betting favourite back in May and is now the favourite to win the 2020 US election with the bookmakers.

His odds currently sit at 8/15, which implies he’s got a 65.2 percent chance of winning the election.

OddsChecker spokesman Callum Wilson said: “After a weekend of last-minute campaigning from both Trump and Biden, the early voting stage has passed and there’s been some interesting activity in the swing states betting.

“Priced at even money just over a week ago, the Republicans have now strengthened their position in the betting market to win Florida, at a best price of 8/11. In the last 7 days, 62% of bettors on our Florida market have sided with the Republicans.

“Pennsylvania, which is widely regarded to be the most crucial state for Joe Biden, tells a different story to Florida. The odds here point to a Democrat victory, at the best price of 8/15. Those odds exactly match the best price that Biden wins the election and suggest a 65.2% chance of that outcome.

“Georgia has been particularly interesting over the past month or so. A Republican stronghold in recent years, the Democrats had shortened as far as even money from 5/2 over recent weeks. However, a flurry of bets on the Republicans has seen them cut back in to as short as 3/5 this morning. Those odds imply a 62.5% probability Georgia stays red.”

Source:

www.express.co.uk

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