Who will win the Senate?

President Trump’s entire first term has coincided with a narrow Republican majority in the Senate. While a two-thirds supermajority that could have removed him from office after impeachment has not recently been within reach of either party, the slim advantage made the difference in confirming Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, in filling dozens of other federal judgeships, and in passing the Republican tax bill in 2017.

If Trump is re-elected on Tuesday, he will face divided government regardless of the composition of the Senate, since control of the House is supremely unlikely to change hands.



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