The growing threat of recession

From economic crises, as a rule, there is one main reason. So, in 2001, it was the depreciation of stocks of Internet companies, in 2007 — the collapse of the real estate market.

But now you can call several disturbing factors, and, as shown by a survey of experts conducted by The Wall Street Journal, the likelihood that next year will break out the next recession, was 25%, which is the highest rate since October 2011. For comparison, year earlier it was equal to just 13%.

“A trade war with China, rising interest rates, the sharp depreciation of the stock and the slowdown in the global scale is equally likely to result in a General decline in the United States,” said Lynn Reaser from Point Loma Nazarene University, former chief economist of the Bank of America.

Overall, more than two thirds of respondents believe that the state of the us economy to some extent will depend on the situation other key players, including China, Japan and the European Union. Of particular concern 2020 — 56.6% of respondents said that the recession will be the time, while in 2021-the first such forecast was made only 26.4 percent. And if in the October, General confidence that sooner or later the crisis will occur, expressed 53% of the experts, now the share had risen to 84%.

First of all we are talking about that any unanticipated developments (for example, the exacerbation of tensions with China) can lead to the collapse of stock prices, reduce costs to both businesses and consumers, as well as tighter financial regulation. As suggested by Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, its role can be played by noneconomic factors such as political confrontation between the White house and the house of representatives, has led to a record-long suspension of activities of the government.

Some experts worried about the possibility that accelerating inflation will force the fed to react too harshly and to raise interest rates to a level at which further economic development will be impossible. In addition, one should note that over time, the fiscal stimulus measures (tax reductions and increased government spending) will have less impact.

Even if in the next 2 years the American economy will escape the crisis, its growth rate, according to most respondents, reduced. On average, they predict that the gross domestic product, amounting to 2018 3% 2019 will decline to 2.2% and in 2020 — and at up to 1.7. However, the fed comes from the fact that the corresponding figures in 2019-2020 will be equal to 2.3 and 2%, while the optimists in the White house claim that GDP will continue to increase by 3%.
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