When in January the deal Theresa may at the Brexit was crushed with a record difference of 230 votes in the House of Commons, some commentators have predicted that she has almost no chance to pass through the British Parliament. However, among conservatives there is a growing conviction that the deal the Prime Minister, perhaps with some amendments from the EU, will eventually be held before the end of March.
“The situation calmed down. In recent days, a growing number of colleagues who say to me, “You know, I think this transaction will take place,” said one of the Tory MPs, part of a group of conservative deputies Brexit Delivery Group (BDG).
BDG, which has about 50 Tory MPs consists of supporters of the “remainers” [remain — to stay] and the “leavers” [leave, leave], and United in their efforts to try to enlist the support of the party in the “negotiation solution”. Members of this group expect that a growing number of MPs-conservatives will ultimately support the deal Prime Minister.
Why? Because if they will not support a deal that many conservatives realize that they can finish either a long delay with Brexit or no Brexit destructive of the transaction, or no Brexit.
“Dynamics in ERG [European research group of conservative MPs, in favour of Brexit] is changing, said one moderate MP-conservative. — ERG split, and many of them come to an agreement through clenched teeth.”
Conversely, the more chances of Brexit more soft, the more likely it is that MPs, the conservatives believe that the original transaction may take place. The labour party offered to support may, if she returns to a more gentle exit from the EU.
While the majority of deputies-conservatives oppose withdrawal from the EU without a deal, for dedicated block of conservative MPs in favour of Brexit, an exit without a deal is the only result that could prevent the split of the party. However, for others, the idea that out of the transaction will unite the party, ridiculous.
“The irony is that it would not have saved the party, and would have torn us in two. And in the next election we would absolutely povrzani,” said one prominent conservative.
However, despite fears about the lack of trades, four factors suggest that a Brexit will not be tolerated.
First, a simple parliamentary arithmetic: not more than 75 members of Parliament from the total number of 650 people would be happy if the UK left the EU without a deal in the next month. Others oppose this idea, and in Parliament there is a working majority that will seek to prevent such an outcome.
Secondly, Ollie Robbins is a civil servant who is the closest Advisor to the Mae for Brexit — was overheard in the bar of Brussels this week, where he said that, in his opinion, the parliamentarians will have to choose between the plan of the Prime Minister and potentially long extension of article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
Thirdly, there is a big chance that the plot back-bench [rear bench, where sitting members of Parliament] to remove from the agenda Brexit no transaction will be completed at the end of this month.
Finally, Ministers can resign to prevent Brexit without a deal, some of them may refuse to “government whip” to vote for the amendment of Cooper, 27 Feb. Senior Tory MP Dominic Grieve, said this week that about a dozen may be willing to do so, including several secretaries of state. You may need all that forces Theresa may to avoid this outcome.
If Brexit no transaction will be removed from the agenda, it will force MPs of the conservatives face a completely different choice compared with what they now consider. Not between deal and no deal, but between the deal and the extension of article 50 in a few months. The truth is that the majority of deputies-conservatives have a real appetite to do away with the Brexit, not for fear of the backlash from their constituents. They are afraid that it may eventually lead to the collapse of Brexit as a whole.