You should not have any illusions

The slowdown in the global economy, instability in the stock markets and insufficient investment activity will, according to most experts, the factors by which gross domestic product will grow not at 3%, and much smaller.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, he is, according to participants of a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal, amounted to only 2.6% in the first and second quarters of 2019 will amount to, respectively, 1.8-and 2.5%. Thus, the average for 9 months (from October to June inclusive) is equal to 2.3%, which in itself is not bad, but still it is not comparable with result from September 2017 to September 2018, when the pace of development reached 3%.

As noted by Diane swank, chief economist of the firm Grant Thornton, the main problem is reducing demand for American products in China and European countries, as well as the reluctance of companies to implement long-term projects. “Of course, it’s not a crisis, however, increasingly difficult to see where exactly he can start,” she added, noting that the situation in the beginning of the year while it is impossible to judge with certainty, because this period is, among other things, was marked by the suspension of the activities of the Federal government. And who knows to what consequences it led to judge this will be possible only after a certain time.

Still, we can assume that the duration of the period of development of the American economy in the summer will reach 10 years and will become a record in history. In the first place, the reasons for optimism that companies are still willing to recruit employees, and the level of welfare, like consumer spending, are rising because of wage increases and tax cuts.

In particular, for the first 3 weeks of January retail sales were 6.5% higher than in the same period of 2018. However, in December this figure was 7.9%, and January was the third consecutive month, during which the level of consumer confidence in economic Outlook declined.
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