This year, the survey showed traders and analysts conducted by Reuters, the price of coffee Arabica beans can increase dramatically.
The main reason is the shortage of — shortage of raw materials will be a worldwide standard of 1 million 60-kilogram bags, while in 2018 it is, for example, exceeded demand by 4.25 million bags. And resulted in the end of 2019 the price of a pound of Arabica coffee may rise to $1.25, which is 24.8% more than at present.
As noted by Caroline Bain of Capital Economics, the main problem is that Brazil, while remaining a major producer of Arabica coffee, put on market, as before, around 55 million bags. This figure is not only not increased, but approximately 8.3% below the peak level in 2018, when the price of coffee declined 18 September to 92 cents per pound, which was the lowest in nearly 13 years. Yes, and the Brazilian real increases that have already led to decrease in demand for coffee. But the less it produces, the larger the deficit, which leads to a rise in price of raw materials.