The issue in the coalition: what scenarios are possible in Moldova after the elections

Parliamentary elections in Moldova did not reveal a clear winner. The intrigue, however, remains: the question is whether the Pro-Russian party of socialists and Pro-European bloc ACUM to form a temporary coalition to send the party to the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc to the opposition.

The Central election Commission has processed 100% of ballot papers and announced the final results of the parliamentary elections that took place on February 24.

The vote was held under a mixed system, 50 deputies were elected on party lists, 51 in single — mandate constituencies. As shown by the results from changing the electoral system has benefited the ruling Democratic party, the first result in single-mandate constituencies, according to party lists, the Democrats have shown the third result. Only Parliament have passed five political parties.

Given the voting on national lists and single-mandate constituencies of the Pro-presidential party of socialists should obtain in the new Parliament with 35 seats out of 101, the Democrats — 30 seats, the opposition bloc ACUM — 26 seats, and the party of “shore” — the seven seats. Also the Parliament held three deputies participating in the elections as independent candidates.

None of the parties does not have enough resources to independently form a parliamentary majority and a new government.

The leader of the Democratic party and the oligarch Vlad plahotniuc announced on Monday, February 25, he was ready to start negotiations on the establishment of the future government.

Vlad plahotniuc: “After the natural competition, it is important to forget past grievances and look to the future. PDM is ready to start negotiations with political parties and independent candidates that have won seats in Parliament to form a parliamentary majority and an efficient government”.

No one in Parliament political forces not in a hurry to accept the invitation of the Democrats. The fact that the leaders of the bloc ACUM Sandu Andrei Nastase — the main criticism of the authorities and of the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. In addition, they signed an agreement pledging not to engage in blocks with groups of Plahotniuc, President of Dodona and Ilan Shor. The presidential party of socialists, for their part, known for its close ties with Moscow, which is contrary to conventionally Pro-European position of the Democrats. Potential partner Democrats the party of “shore” does not have sufficient number of seats to form a parliamentary majority.

Moreover, as socialists, and the election bloc ACUM intend to challenge the election results.

“These elections are the most undemocratic in the history of the country”, — said after the polls closed Maia Sandu. Later the head of the state Igor Dodon announced that “it was the dirtiest elections in Moldova”.

The leaders of the bloc ACUM intend to investigate “electoral fraud”. “The criminals have once again decided to steal the vote of the people,” — said at a briefing Andrei Nastase.

Andrei Nastase: “thousands of people, orderly, brought from Transnistria, for $ 20 more and voted on many times on different sites. This time the fraud was shown live on television. There is evidence that people received money for the vote. There is another point — the use of administrative resources in the election campaign, which directly influenced the choice of citizens and the election results.”

The socialists also dissatisfied with the results and intend to appeal the voting results in some districts, including Transnistria, Moldova, said the leader of the party Zinaida Greceanii.

Zinaida Greceanii: “We do not exclude that there may be early elections owing to the questionable legitimacy of these elections. With more information we will act after we pass all instances”.

Observers, however, called the elections competitive and well-organized, and “most aspects of the elections were conducted professionally and transparently,” — said at a briefing on Monday, February 25, representatives of the international observation mission from the European Parliament, OSCE and Council of Europe.

It is noted that the campaign was compromised by numerous reports of the use by competitors of administrative resources, pressure on civil servants and bribery of voters.

The representative of the European Parliament Rebecca harms recalled that the Venice Commission was against changing the electoral system. The observer PACE Claude Kern said that the Moldovan authorities had committed those errors, which warned them, — are unable to provide effective mechanisms that would not give the parties that own the media to influence the outcome of elections, making the voter bribery and use of administrative resources.

Summing up the results of the elections, political analyst Stefan Gligor broadcast of private TV channel TVC21 reminded that plans on changing the voting system in the summer of 2017 was made by the ruling party of the Democrats. Despite the criticism of Western structures, the Democrats managed to push through Parliament its initiative through the support of deputies from the party of socialists.

Stefan Gligor: “the Socialists with a smile on his face adopted a mixed system. They thought that they divide this country into two, with the Democratic party. They do not understand is actually that this system is not for them, they were just a tool for the adoption of this law and for the simulation of public support for this law, a political consensus.”

The expert believes that socialists and block ACUM need “to exercise political wisdom to reformat the government and to hold truly free elections.”

Stefan Gligor: “the socialists have two options: they can shoot yourself in the head and end it’s agony to go with them (Democrats RFI) for a coalition, or to just stand by and wait when they will snatch the required number of mandates, the Democrats have 10 seats (to form a coalition of RFI), so they (the socialists) will effectively disappear from the political scene and did not live to see the election of 2023. Or they can create a technical coalition with the bloc ACUM, the purpose of which is to dismantle the corrupt system, which was created by the Democratic party in all branches of government, for 6-12 months and then announce early elections and to restart the government from scratch”.

The first parliamentary session of XXI convocation will take place no later than March 26, after which the Parliament will have three attempts to form a government. If, after 45 days after the first attempt, the government will be formed, the President will dissolve the Parliament, and the country will be announced early elections.
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