How to beat the Democrats?

The representatives of the party should not forget the lesson of 2016: it is possible to gain a majority of votes in the presidential election, but lost, receiving less votes in the electoral College.

Hillary Clinton then scored more almost 3 million votes of ordinary voters, however, won only 20 States and the district of Columbia, while the Donald trump — 30. Accordingly, the votes of the members of the electoral College were distributed as against 232 306, which determined the outcome of the campaign. In principle, now for the Democrats not lost anything, but a lot depends on who will be their candidate. This will depend on the campaign strategy.

The first option is to once again achieve a victory in the United States, where in 2016 unexpectedly supported trump, is Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

This requires that the Challenger was a centrist, which is able to vote in rural areas and the representatives of the working class. The second strategy is to impose the struggle in the South and in the States the “sun belt” (North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Arizona and Texas), where the Republicans don’t use the once huge advantage. In this case, Democrats have to nominate a more liberal candidate, who will be able to increase voter turnout, especially of members of ethnic minorities.

According to Gallup, in 17 States, where in 2016, won the trump, its activity is approve at least 50% of the population. In 20, where he lost, this indicator does not exceed 40%. And one can hardly doubt that the preferences of local voters in 2020 won’t change.

However, the interest are still 13 States where 3 years ago, trump also got the upper hand there now, his rating ranges from 41 to 49%. While in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, to “take away” which is so important for the Democrats, it is only 42%. In the South a higher rating of 45% in North Carolina, 44% in Georgia, 43% in Florida and Arizona. The only exception is Texas — 41%.

The sociological data also suggest that in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the number of supporters of the Democrats by 6 points more than those who registered as Republicans. In Wisconsin and Arizona, these figures are equal, and in the South, more conservatives (by 3 points in Texas, 1 in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida). But everything will depend on voter turnout — and in 2018, the turnout of Democrats was almost a record high. Last but not least for this reason, the representatives of the party won in 6 campaigns in their States, and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey was re-elected, scoring 13 points more than the opponent, and Governor Tom wolf by 17.

However, in the South 6 of the 7 campaigns won by Republicans, despite the enthusiasm of Democrats, which has caused such candidates, as Andrew Gillam in Florida, Stacey Abrams Georgia, and Beto O’rourke in Texas. And therefore, we can assume that in 2020 the presidential elections the Democrats would have to fight first and foremost for the States, where previously they could count on success.

If they win in Pennsylvania and Michigan, you’ll get 268 votes of the members of the electoral College — only 2 less than that needed for common success. In this case, the results of the campaign in any small state will be of special importance. And, therefore, more preferable candidate who will take a moderate stance, especially if it will reflect the everyday needs of ordinary Americans.

Y. Z.

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