Golf picks for Valero Texas Open: Lanto Griffin, Doug Ghim

With lower than 24 hours separating golf fanatics from the primary Valero Texas Open tee time, I’m right here to share one last set of performs.

In case you missed it, I broke down my three favourite spinoff bets in yesterday’s column. Now, we recenter and switch to the matchup bets, of which I’ve two to share.

You gained’t see many high-profile names on this column, however I imagine these matchups are pretty lopsided in a single path based mostly on my modeling.

So, with out additional ado, listed here are my two finest matchup bets for the Valero Texas Open. Both can be found at BetMGM and odds are reflective on the time of writing.

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Best Golf decide #1 – Lanto Griffin (-115) over Alex Smalley

There’s some concern over each gamers’ current kind – each venture outdoors the top-90 in my 12-round mannequin – however Griffin improves as you enhance the pattern dimension.

Across the final 36 rounds, Griffin ranks thirtieth general in my mannequin whereas projecting out thirty second in my 50-round mannequin. Smalley, regardless of posting a very good efficiency in final week’s Corales Puntacana Championship, initiatives out 76th and 83rd, respectively, in my 36- and 50-round fashions.

Plus, Griffin’s outcomes on correlated programs leads me to imagine his eye merely fits this setup. This season, he recorded a solo thirty ninth in a powerful Genesis Invitational discipline whereas posting a sixth-place end on the Shriners at TPC Summerlin, the strongest course correlation with TPC San Antonio, per datagolf.com.


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Additionally, Griffin’s previous performances at TPC San Antonio add yet one more constructive layer to this handicap. He hasn’t missed the minimize in two appearances on the Valero and improved upon his T58 in 2018 by posting a T34 in final yr’s occasion.

On the flip-side, Smalley has no expertise at TPC San Antonio and misplaced strokes on the sector in two straight occasions at correlated programs (the Genesis and Shriners).

Lastly, historical past tells us that Griffin has an enormous benefit when it comes to his placing. Per fantasynational.com, Griffin’s finest placing floor is Bermuda, the inexperienced sort at TPC San Antonio. On common, he’s gaining +0.26 strokes placing/spherical on that floor. While that floor can be Smalley’s finest, he’s solely gaining +0.07 strokes/spherical on the sector.

For all these causes, I’d play Griffin all the best way as much as -130.

Best Golf decide #2 – Doug Ghim (-105) over Ok.H. Lee

Just like Griffin vs. Smalley, this matchup represents an enormous modeling discrepancy for me and I’m considerably stunned Ghim is an underdog.

Texas Valero Open golf betting picks
Doug Ghim celebrates an enormous shot
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In my 36-round mannequin, Ghim ranks out fourth general, behind solely Hideki Matsuyama, Jhonattan Vegas, and Rory McIlroy. Plus, he’s no worse than twenty seventh within the discipline when it comes to SG: method and SG: tee-to-green whereas concurrently rating fifth in each Par 5 scoring: 550-600 yards and proximity to the opening: 150-175 yards.

Meanwhile, Ok.H. Lee is a hundred and tenth in my 36-round mannequin and doesn’t crack the top-100 in any of my 12, 24, or 50-round fashions. On the flip-side, Ghim is tenth or higher within the eighth, 36 and 50, and 75-round fashions.

The fear right here is that Ghim’s worst placing floor is Bermuda and, previous to a sixth-place end on the PLAYERS, he missed the minimize three straight instances. However, there’s good historical past at TPC San Antonio (Ghim completed T34 in 2021) to go together with the very fact Ghim posted a T40 at TPC Summerlin final yr.

As for Lee, he has solely completed contained in the top-40 twice in his final seven outings and brings zero course expertise to TPC San Antonio. He does personal a solo 14th at TPC Summerlin final yr, however I believe Ghim’s expertise at this course helps neutralize that.

As a outcome, I’d be prepared to play Ghim as much as -120 and assume he could possibly be in for a very good efficiency in Texas.

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